The public record — fantasy edition
Fantasy Calls Tracker
Every fantasy call we publish — sleepers, busts, milestones, and (in season) start/sit and waiver calls — is logged here with its reasoning and the ADP it argued against, then graded mechanically when the stat data exists. Season-long calls settle after Week 18. Losses stay on the board forever; that's the point.
All fantasy calls0-0(8 pending)
You're seeing our launch seed: sample calls benchmarked against real July 2026 market ADP (1,442 public 12-team PPR drafts) to demonstrate the format. All are pending — they settle after Week 18, and the results will stand either way.
Sleeper·TreVeyon Henderson (RB, NE)
pendingFinishes as a top-14 PPR RB in 2026
The price this argues against: Priced as the RB24 — ADP 58.9 (pick 5.11), market range 43-70
This is a price argument, not a prophecy. The market lets you have Henderson in round 5 as the RB24 while paying round-2 prices for backs with similar draft-capital pedigrees. Pass-catching backs with fresh legs are exactly the profile that outruns a round-5 tag in PPR, and the 43-70 market range says plenty of rooms already agree with the optimistic half of this take. If he's a committee back all year, this call loses — publicly.
Grading is mechanical (positional finish rank <= 14) — settles post-season (after Week 18).
Sample call — benchmarked against real July 2026 market ADP to demonstrate the tracker format. A demo record is not a track record.
Bust·Christian McCaffrey (RB, SF)
pendingFinishes OUTSIDE the top 8 PPR RBs in 2026
The price this argues against: Priced as the RB3 — ADP 4.8 (pick 1.05), market range 1-9
Nobody disputes the talent — this call is about what a top-5 pick has to return. McCaffrey turns 30 this season, and the market's own 1-9 range on him is the widest of any first-round back, which tells you drafters are already pricing real downside into a slot where you can't afford any. At pick 1.05 you need a top-5 season for the pick to break even; I'd rather pay 1.05 for certainty and buy my upside later. If he posts another elite year, this loss goes on my record where everyone can see it.
Grading is mechanical (positional finish rank >= 9) — settles post-season (after Week 18).
Sample call — benchmarked against real July 2026 market ADP to demonstrate the tracker format. A demo record is not a track record.
Sleeper·Drake Maye (QB, NE)
pendingFinishes as a top-4 fantasy QB in 2026
The price this argues against: Priced as the QB5 — ADP 65.2 (pick 6.05), market range 46-77
The market makes you spend a third-round pick on Josh Allen (ADP 28.4) but lets Maye sit until round 6 at QB5. Young rushing-capable quarterbacks are the single most reliable source of positional outperformance in fantasy, and the gap between QB1 and QB5 prices here is three full rounds of roster-building you get to keep. The 46-77 range shows the market itself can't agree on him — that disagreement is the opportunity. My opinion, tracked publicly either way.
Grading is mechanical (positional finish rank <= 4) — settles post-season (after Week 18).
Sample call — benchmarked against real July 2026 market ADP to demonstrate the tracker format. A demo record is not a track record.
Bust·George Pickens (WR, DAL)
pendingFinishes OUTSIDE the top 15 PPR WRs in 2026
The price this argues against: Priced as the WR9 — ADP 17.4 (pick 2.05), market range 12-24
A second-round pick at WR9 is a price for a proven target-monopoly season, and I don't think the target math in Dallas supports it with CeeDee Lamb (ADP 10.7) commanding the same defense's attention every snap. Two receivers from one offense both priced inside the top 18 overall picks is a bet that one passing game feeds two elite PPR seasons — historically a thin needle. Pickens can have a good year and this call still wins; that's what OUTSIDE-top-15 means at a top-15 price.
Grading is mechanical (positional finish rank >= 16) — settles post-season (after Week 18).
Sample call — benchmarked against real July 2026 market ADP to demonstrate the tracker format. A demo record is not a track record.
Sleeper·Bucky Irving (RB, TB)
pendingFinishes as a top-12 PPR RB in 2026
The price this argues against: Priced as the RB20 — ADP 46.3 (pick 4.10), market range 33-56
Round 4 for a back the market itself has taken as high as pick 33 is my favorite kind of discount — the price already contains the proof of concept. In PPR, reception-heavy backs on offenses that keep them on the field in every game script bunch up right at the RB8-RB14 line, and that's exactly the finish this call needs. The downside case is a timeshare, which is why he costs 4.10 and not 2.10. Logged, tracked, and graded after Week 18.
Grading is mechanical (positional finish rank <= 12) — settles post-season (after Week 18).
Sample call — benchmarked against real July 2026 market ADP to demonstrate the tracker format. A demo record is not a track record.
Sleeper·Harold Fannin Jr. (TE, CLE)
pendingFinishes as a top-3 fantasy TE in 2026
The price this argues against: Priced as the TE5 — ADP 66.0 (pick 6.06), market range 51-76
Tight end is the one position where a two-tier jump is routinely available in the middle rounds, because TE scoring is so top-heavy that the difference between TE5 and TE2 is one team deciding to funnel targets. The market has Fannin fifth at the position but three full rounds cheaper than Trey McBride (ADP 29.1) — I'm paying the round-6 price for a shot at round-3 production. If the target share never materializes, the loss is mine and it stays on the board.
Grading is mechanical (positional finish rank <= 3) — settles post-season (after Week 18).
Sample call — benchmarked against real July 2026 market ADP to demonstrate the tracker format. A demo record is not a track record.
Season milestone·Brock Bowers (TE, LV)
pendingFinishes as the overall TE1 in PPR in 2026
The price this argues against: Priced as the TE2 — ADP 35.5 (pick 3.12), behind Trey McBride (ADP 29.1)
The market has settled on McBride-then-Bowers by about half a round, but look at the shapes: Bowers' 21-48 range is wider than McBride's 17-37, meaning a meaningful slice of drafters already take Bowers first. A target-dominant tight end is the closest thing the position has to a WR1 profile, and I think the volume case tips to Bowers. This is the narrowest kind of call — first place or nothing — and it settles itself in January.
Grading is mechanical (positional finish rank <= 1) — settles post-season (after Week 18).
Sample call — benchmarked against real July 2026 market ADP to demonstrate the tracker format. A demo record is not a track record.
Bust·Javonte Williams (RB, DAL)
pendingFinishes OUTSIDE the top 18 PPR RBs in 2026
The price this argues against: Priced as the RB17 — ADP 35.3 (pick 3.11), market range 24-44
Round 3 is where drafts are won and lost, and the market is asking a round-3 price for a back whose own range (24-44) spans nearly two full rounds of disagreement. When the crowd can't decide whether a player is a round-2 or round-4 asset, I side with the cheaper read and spend pick 3.11 on the positions that reward it. A fine season at RB19-RB24 still grades this call a WIN — that's the discipline of betting against a price instead of against a player.
Grading is mechanical (positional finish rank >= 19) — settles post-season (after Week 18).
Sample call — benchmarked against real July 2026 market ADP to demonstrate the tracker format. A demo record is not a track record.