The Ratings
How the XR works
XR is short for Expert Rating. The whole formula, no secrets. Every number comes from final box scores in our own stat library, and anyone can recompute any rating by hand.
Five attributes, each a percentile among qualified players (4+ games cached) mapped to 25–99: SCR points per game, REB rebounds per game, PLY assists per game, DEF steals + 1.2 × blocks per game, and EFF true shooting (points ÷ (2 × (FGA + 0.44 × FTA))), ranked among players taking 5+ shots a game — low-volume shooters sit at a neutral mark so one hot cameo can't headline.
The XR itself blends the raw percentiles — 35% scoring, 15% rebounding, 15% playmaking, 15% defense, 20% efficiency — onto a 40–99 scale. Tiers: 90+ Franchise, 80s All-League, 70s Starter, 60s Rotation, below that Bench.
Form (hot/cold) compares a player's last five games to his own season baseline — 60% scoring change, 40% efficiency change. Above +8% shows hot, below −8% shows cold, and the signed number always rides with the color.
Ratings move fast early in the season because small samples are honest about being small samples. We publish the formula for the same reason the pick tracker shows losses: if you can't check it, it's marketing, not analysis.